Global growth forecast not the whole picture

An optimistic view on global growth next year is clouded by a more complicated picture in Europe and Germany

Macroeconomic Story

The outlook for global GDP growth in 2024 has been upgraded by Euromonitor in its latest Global Ecomomic Outlook – with a headline global prediction of 2.9% growth being based on buoyant consumer spending on services, slowing inflation and banking sector strengths.

But it’s not all good news. The eurozone itself offers a less rosy outlook, thanks to continuing high interest rates, stubborn inflation and weak external demand. Which means that GDP growth here could stay below 1.5% next year – not least, according to forecasts, thanks to a potential economic contraction in Germany, the region’s largest and most influential economy.

Data released at the end of August showed the German economy posting zero growth between the first and second quarters of 2023. The government there has responded swiftly, however, introducing 32bn euros of corporate tax cuts over the next four years in an effort to get the economy back on an upward trajectory.

Looking on the bright side for Europe as a whole, a robust labour market and good performances from the service and tourism sectors are also seen on the horizon in for 2024.

Modest optimism for 2024 is also reflected across the Atlantic in the US, where 53% of CEOs of large corporate companies believe that prospects for the coming 12 months look brighter today than they did at the start of the year.

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